A half dozen murmured conversations broke out around the table. The President rapped his knuckles on the polished wood and the room plunged into silence.
“Any other comments?” he asked tartly.
Scott’s stomach was turning sour. He felt annoyed that these decision-makers were allowing the possibility of people overreacting to the threat cloud their judgment. It was obvious to him that just by looking at the facts, the chances of anyone getting hurt by the station’s impact were pretty close to zero. You were more likely to die in an automobile accident or get hit by lightning than be killed by a piece of the space station.
But the Homeland Security secretary did have a point, Scott reluctantly admitted to himself. People’s fear for the worst would drive their behavior, not any calm, logical assessment of what would really happen. Fear would spread like an unstoppable disease. Truth would become the first casualty of the crisis and distorted reality would become fact in the minds of millions.
The President looked around the room and asked simply, “So what are our options?” It was a demand, not a question.
The Secretary of Defense cleared her throat and looked at Scott. “Lieutenant Colonel Robinson, so it’s possible the ISS could impact the eastern seaboard, correct?”
“Yes, ma’am, it’s possible, but extremely improbable. It would more likely miss the U.S. entirely in an uncontrolled deorbit. But if the terrorists were to keep thrusting until the station is deep in the atmosphere, I suppose it could hit somewhere along the east coast. But as far as targeting New York”—Scott shook his head—“that’s out of the question.”
“But the Homeland Security secretary’s point is valid,” Defense insisted. “And if perception is reality, then the solution is to mold public perception to a new reality.”
Scott sank back onto his chair, flustered at where the Defense secretary was heading. But the others around the table were obviously on her same wavelength.
The President picked up her line of reasoning. “You’re saying we need to make the reality of the ISS deorbiting no longer a threat. The media is already speculating about what happened up there, and our silence is only making matters worse.”
“Yes, sir,” Defense said. “Which means going public that the U.S. intends to bring down the International Space Station so that it’s no longer a threat.”
“By deorbiting it?”
“No, sir.” She shook her head. “By shooting it down with an antisatellite weapon.”
Scott went rigid on his chair, stunned that they would even bring up the option of shooting down the ISS. After ten years of engineering design, it had taken fifteen years to build the station, with more than thirty-five Space Shuttle launches and four Russian launches. It had cost more than 150 billion dollars; ten nations had contributed to the effort; more than a hundred astronauts, cosmonauts, and tourists had visited the international facility. It was a monument to human achievement, and would play a pivotal role in the next phase of the human exploration of space. Yet here they were callously thinking of blowing it out of the sky—all because two tin-pot terrorists had somehow managed to find their way on board the most exclusive place in the solar system!
“We’ve had an antisatellite capability since 2008,” the Defense secretary continued, “when we shot down one of our own satellites, USA-193, that was malfunctioning and threatened to crash in a populated area. Operation Burnt Frost publicly demonstrated that ASAT technology is real.
“If the ISS is truly in the hands of terrorists who threaten to deorbit that station into a populated area, then we have to be proactive. We have cruisers equipped with Aegis ASAT missiles already positioned in the Pacific theater as part of our defense against the North Korean missile threat. They can be quickly relocated to optimally target the space station.”
“And how long will that take?” asked the President.
“It depends on the ISS orbit,” Defense replied. “We can first decide where we want the station to impact and then work backwards to where to position the Aegis cruisers. But it makes the most sense to duplicate the Burnt Frost shoot-down and bring the ISS down over the Pacific Ocean, so that even if it has a large debris path it will all fall harmlessly in the water.”
She paused for a breath, then before anyone could comment, Defense added, “And it will probably take three, or even four, ASAT missiles to hit the ISS at various locations to break it up into small-enough pieces for a safe, quick reentry—disperse the plutonium over the Pacific.”
Looking at Scott again, the Secretary of Defense said, “Air Force Space Command has current ISS orbital parameters from its Space Fence suite of sensors, but it would help to also have NASA’s original astrodynamic models to aid in the calculation of where to optimally shoot down the station. Lieutenant Colonel Robinson, how soon can NASA transmit their astrodynamic models to the Air Force?”
Feeling light-headed, Scott struggled to his feet. This decision process was going much too fast, and in a direction far from what he’d been hoping for. “Ma’am, NASA can get that as soon as I have a contact point in DoD.” He wet his lips and turned toward the President. “But, sir, really, does it make any sense to do this, without first at least trying to mount a rescue mission? Launch one of our capsules and at least try to take back the ISS?”
The Defense secretary arched an eyebrow. “They’ve threatened to obliterate New York and contaminate the east coast in four days, Colonel. Which, according to the NASA Administrator, means they’ve already started the deorbit process. Can NASA even launch a manned capsule in four days, much less than four months?” She shook her head. “The only rockets that launch that quickly are our ICBMs.” She turned to the President. “I recommend that you immediately go public and nip this in the bud. The sooner the ISS is brought down, the less panic we’ll have throughout the country.”
Scott started to protest, but the Defense secretary stared at him and silently shook her head. Frustrated, he plopped back down on his chair while the discussion swirled around the table.
After ten minutes of listening to his advisors’ comments the President lifted his hands for silence. The chatter quickly stopped.
Looking weary but undefeated, the President said, “Generate a presidential directive. The danger is too great if indeed the ISS were to hit a populated area, and from this conversation I’m convinced the danger would be even worse once the public finds out that the ISS has been taken over by terrorists. And the public will find out. It’s only a matter of time before the news media takes the TV feed they already have and comes to that conclusion.”
Scott nodded agreement. The media saw the terrorists murder Vasilev before he’d had a chance to cut the feed from the space station. It was already being played around the world.
“Worse yet,” the President continued, “we’re running out of time. Pre-positioned or not, I don’t know how long it will take our Aegis cruisers to reach their launch points. But broadcasting this to the public would only give that much more time for panic and rioting to set in. We can’t let this go public and allow the terrorists to accelerate their timetable, so we need to make positioning our ASAT cruisers our top priority.” He nodded at the Secretary of Defense. “Activate the Burnt Frost option and keep the deployment classified.”